Editor’s Note: Each year, University of Georgia agricultural economists develop a comprehensive overview of various sectors of the agriculture industry. The following is an excerpt from the section on corn, soybeans and wheat.
Last year’s harvest saw bountiful production of the major U.S. grain crops. This increase in production was driven by higher yields with corn forecast to set a record yield per acre and soybeans projected to tie for its second-highest yield on record. The increase in soybean and wheat production was also aided by more planted acres during the 2024 crop year. On the demand side, domestic use was up for all three grains as were exports.
Crop prices were all lower by the end of 2024 relative to earlier in the year. However, they were still above both the prepandemic lows and the reference prices in the Farm Bill safety net. Despite slight decreases in input prices compared to 2023, production expenses remained near or above the commodity prices. All these factors led to narrow or negative profit margins and forecasts of lower net farm incomes.
Looking ahead to 2025, margins will continue to be narrow or negative for grain producers with lingering high input costs and expectations for commodity prices to remain low.
Planted acres of corn varied a lot from 2015 to 2024, while acres of soybeans and wheat remained more steady. Overall, planted acres of corn and wheat are expected to be lower and soybean higher.
The United States planted 90.7 million acres of corn in 2024, which was down 3.9 million acres from 2023. Record-high U.S. corn yields were predicted for the 2024 crop at 183.1 bushels per acre. If realized, total U.S. corn production will reach the third-highest yield on record at 15.1 billion bushels. Compared to the 2023–24 marketing year, the use of corn was projected to be up 221 million bushels for feed, fuels and exports.
Exports are an important component of demand, and there is uncertainty about how proposed tariffs will impact agricultural trade with the new incoming administration. However, the end of 2024 saw a win for U.S. corn exports when an international trade decision ruled that Mexico’s restrictions on imports of genetically modified corn violated the terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. For the 2024–25 marketing year, around 2.5 billion bushels of U.S. corn are estimated to be exported to foreign markets, up 183 million bushels from 2023. Ending stocks were projected down 22 million bushels from the 2023–24 marketing year to 1.7 billion bushels for the 2024–25 crop.
Georgia producers planted 375,000 acres of corn, down 22.7% from 2023. Yields also were forecast down 18.4% at 142 bushels per acre. If realized, Georgia’s corn production is projected to be down 36.9% from 2023 to the second-lowest level in the past 10 years. With the large U.S. supply and export uncertainty, prices are expected to go down in 2025. Based on futures prices at the writing of this article and a positive historical local basis, expected corn prices in Georgia will likely average $4.75 per bushel in 2025. CS