Texas A&M AgriLife associate professor and Extension economist Mark Welch says in his mid-September newsletter, Feed Grain Outlook, that world corn supplies are up on increased carryover and production. In addition to the larger U.S. corn crop, Chinese production is estimated up about 200 million bushels.
“Corn use in the 2021/2022 marketing year is up 172 million bushels. Ending stocks of 512 million bushels has increased day of use on hand at the end of the marketing year from 87.9 days to 91.5 days.”
Welch says the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report offered revisions to the corn supply and demand balance sheets that eased the supply situation in both the United States and globally.
“Beginning stocks for the 2021/2022 marketing year increased 70 million bushels on downward revisions to ethanol use and exports. USDA increased both corn acreage and average yield estimates for the 2021 U.S. crop, adding another 246 million bushels to supply. Feed use in the new marketing year was revised up by 75 million bushels as were exports.
“With an additional 316 million bushels of supply and another 150 million bushels of use, ending stocks were up 166 million bushels. Days of use on hand at the end of the marketing year increased from a 30.9-day supply in August to 34.7 days. The projected season average farm price was down 30 cents to $5.45.”
According to Welch, 37% of the U.S. corn crop has reached maturity, which is slightly ahead of the five-year average.
“The crop condition index dropped three points this week to 352. Corn rated very poor was up 1% and that rated good was down 1%.”